Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

GND
1192027485
VIAF
6383156497233017740000
ORCID
0000-0002-3636-918X
Affiliation
German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Berlin, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Germany
Daniel, Volker;
GND
1204449546
VIAF
1482158188230820260000
ORCID
0000-0002-5240-6024
Affiliation
Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität, Bonn, Germany, Deutsche Bundesbank
Steege, Lucas ter

Data appendix to:
Volker Daniel/Lucas ter Steege: Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany, in: Explorations in Economic History 75 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2019.101305.

A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study inflation expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate inflation expectations from a factor-augmented vector autoregression model, real interest rate forecasts, and quantitative news series. Consistently across these approaches, we do not find a shift to increased expected inflation. This recovery was different, and its causes lie elsewhere.

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